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Let’s start by getting an understanding of the allegory.
The first great eagle represents Babylon, or, King Nebuchadnezzar. The cedar is Judah. The topmost young twig is Jehoiachin, the king of Judah who was exiled by Babylon and taken back to “the land of merchants” (Babylon). The seed represents those who Babylon left behind. This is important because King Nebuchadnezzar was gracious in setting up a tributary kingdom. This simply meant that Judah was “owned” by Babylon and they must pay them in order to continue to live in their land.
Under the tributary kingdom, Zedekiah (son of Josiah) was made the new king of Judah. He represents the spreading vine in this allegory. He was given everything he needed to thrive (plenty of water) but was enticed by the Egyptians. He eventually decided he was going to plot against Nebuchadnezzar and asked Egypt to come to their aid. Jeremiah writes of the foolishness of this move.
Then the word of the LORD came to Jeremiah the prophet, saying, 7 “Thus says the LORD God of Israel, ‘Thus you are to say to the king of Judah, who sent you to Me to inquire of Me: “Behold, Pharaoh’s army which has come out for your assistance is going to return to its own land of Egypt. 8 “The Chaldeans will also return and fight against this city, and they will capture it and burn it with fire.”‘
Jeremiah 37:6-8 NASB
Zedekiah could not outsmart the plan of God. Similarly, God’s plan today is for Christians to eagerly anticipate His return while spreading the Gospel with grace and truth. Countless times in Scripture, men tried to do what was right in their own minds instead of following the direction of God. Today, we must fight against the urge to follow our own will and continue to believe and trust that His Word will not return void.